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Posts Tagged ‘Home Supply’

Good News, Real Estate Demand is Rising and Supplies are Falling…

Thursday, April 21st, 2011

existing home sales 201103 Good News, Real Estate Demand is Rising and Supplies are Falling…

Home re-sales rose 4 percent last month, according to the March Existing Home Sales report. A total of 5.1 million homes were sold on an annualized, seasonally-adjusted basis.

The strong results re-establish the national, long-term trend toward rising home re-sales.

March marked the 6th month out of eight in which sales volume has increased and sales are up 32 percent from July 2010 lows.

Continue Reading Good News, Real Estate Demand is Rising and Supplies are Falling…

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Existing Home Sales Jump; Housing Market Shows Spark

Tuesday, October 26th, 2010

existing home sales 201009 Existing Home Sales Jump; Housing Market Shows Spark

Great News!  Existing home sales jumped 10 percent in September, the biggest monthly jump on record and a signal that the housing market may be returning to a normal sales pattern post-$8,000 federal tax credit.

July and August numbers were some of the worst on record due to many homebuyers moving up their purchase date to qualify for the $8,000 and $6,500 tax credit.  The vacuum effect brought on talks of a double dip in housing prices.  September’s report bodes well for the economy and for the housing market as it signals a strong return of consumer.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, home resales split as follows:

  • First-time buyers : 32 percent of all buyers
  • Repeat home buyers : 50 percent of all buyers
  • Investors : 18 percent of all buyers

For home buyers, September’s Existing Home Sales report foreshadows a possibly more competitive housing market through the New Year. In addition to rising sales volume, home supplies are down by nearly 2 months from July.

At the current pace of sales, the complete housing stock would be depleted in 10.7 months.

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As The Pending Home Sales Index Falls, Home Buyers See Dollar Signs

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010

pending home sales 201006 As The Pending Home Sales Index Falls, Home Buyers See Dollar SignsThe Pending Home Sales Index failed to rebound from a cliff-dive in May, falling by another 3 percent more in June.  The index remains at record-low levels.

A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is culled from local real estate associations and large brokers and accounts for 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month nationwide.

The Pending Home Sales Index is a future indicator for the housing market; there is a high correlation between the PHSI and the monthly Existing Home Sales report.  This is because of the relatively large sample set used for the PHSI, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, according to the National Association of Realtors.

June’s Pending Home Sales Index is weak by most measures, but if you’re a home buyer in Salt Lake , the headlines aren’t so bad. Fewer home sales can push negotiation leverage to the buy-side of a transaction.

Plus, there’s other positives in the market for today’s buyers:

  • Home supplies are up, which creates competition among sellers
  • Builder confidence is down, which leads to “free” upgrades and incentives
  • Mortgage rates are low, which increases cash flow and disposable income

All things equal, the current home buying conditions haven’t been this favorable in years.

The falling figures in June’s Pending Home Sales Index hint that home sales will be down through the rest of the summer and into early-Fall. However, mortgage rates may not and higher mortgage rates can do more to change a monthly payment that a small reduction in home price.

If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, consider moving up your time frame.

It’s an excellent time to be a buyer.

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May 2010 Existing Home Sales Is Better Than The Headline Data Suggests

Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

existing home sales 201006 May 2010 Existing Home Sales Is Better Than The Headline Data SuggestsExisting Home Sales dropped in May for the first time in 3 months but still managed to post its second-highest since November 2009, buoyed by the expiring federal tax credit program.

An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction; a resale of an existing home.  Existing Home Sales fell 2.2 percent in May.

The press is calling the drop in sales “unexpected” and disappointing, but a deeper look at the data shows the news isn’t as bad as it first appears.

First, on a regional basis, sales were mostly solid. Only the Northeast region posted a loss. The West even managed a gain.

  • Northeast : -18.3 percent
  • Midwest : 0.0 percent
  • South : +0.5 percent
  • West : +4.9 percent

Second, the supply of homes for sale dropped to 8.3 in May and, because home prices are based on supply and demand, this is a positive for pricing.

By comparison, in 2008, the average existing home inventory was 10.4 months.

And, lastly, in May, first-time home buyers represented 46 percent of all buyers. The number was likely buoyed by the tax credit program but that doesn’t damper the fact that first-time buyers provide a support floor for the housing market.

First-time buyers in Salt Lake enable “existing owners” to move-up to bigger homes, which, in turn, trickles up to the mid-size and jumbo markets.

Analysts expected more from May’s numbers and that may explain why the reaction to the data is generally negative.  However, in many cities, home resales did just fine.

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