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Posts Tagged ‘Home Price Index’

Forbes: Housing Had a Superb Decade

Wednesday, December 8th, 2010

Has real estate been a good investment over the last decade? Many people would be quick to answer ‘no’ to that question. However, they would be wrong. Real estate prices in this past decade have appreciated nicely despite the challenges over the last four years.forbes housing real estate Forbes: Housing Had a Superb Decade

Forbes.com reported on this issue two days ago:

With all the teeth-gnashing over the real estate bubble, the bust and the mortgage mess, you can be forgiven for failing to notice this little tidbit: Housing had a superb decade.

According to Radar Logic, the value of a square foot of housing in the U.S. is up 58% from its January 2000 level. That represents an average annual gain of 4.3% in the value of one square foot of housing. According to the Case Shiller Pricing Index, home values are still up 34.9% over 2000 prices.

How did real estate compare to the stock market? Forbes answered this question:

The growth in average U.S. housing values looks pretty impressive compared with that of other assets, especially stocks. The S&P 500 is lower now than it was in January 2000. So is the Nasdaq. Even factoring in inflation, which ran between 2.5% and 3.5% for most of the decade, a home purchase really did produce wealth for anybody who opted to sell some stocks and buy at around the time the dot-com crash got rolling.

Bottom Line

Even in what many consider a sub-par decade for the housing industry, real estate proved to be an excellent investment.

Thanks to our friends at KCM Blog for this great article.

Has real estate been a good investment over the last decade? Many people would be quick to answer ‘no’ to that question. However, they would be wrong. Real estate prices in this past decade have appreciated nicely despite the challenges over the last four years.Forbes.com reported on this issue two days ago:

With all the teeth-gnashing over the real estate bubble, the bust and the mortgage mess, you can be forgiven for failing to notice this little tidbit: Housing had a superb decade.

According to Radar Logic, the value of a square foot of housing in the U.S. is up 58% from its January 2000 level. That represents an average annual gain of 4.3% in the value of one square foot of housing. According to the Case Shiller Pricing Index, home values are still up 34.9% over 2000 prices.

How did real estate compare to the stock market? Forbes answered this question:

The growth in average U.S. housing values looks pretty impressive compared with that of other assets, especially stocks. The S&P 500 is lower now than it was in January 2000. So is the Nasdaq. Even factoring in inflation, which ran between 2.5% and 3.5% for most of the decade, a home purchase really did produce wealth for anybody who opted to sell some stocks and buy at around the time the dot-com crash got rolling.

Bottom Line

Even in what many consider a sub-par decade for the housing industry, real estate proved to be an excellent investment.

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Pending Home Sales Index Points To A Budding Seller’s Market

Tuesday, December 7th, 2010

pending home sales 201010 Pending Home Sales Index Points To A Budding Sellers MarketThe Pending Home Sales Index surged 10 percent in October as low mortgage rates and low home prices spurred Salt Lake buyers into action.

A “pending home sale” is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The Pending Home Sales Index is at its highest level since April 2010 — the contract deadline date for this year’s federal home buyer tax credit program.

The jump may also explain why home builder confidence is rising even as the number of new homes sold fades. Builders are seeing buyers’ renewed interest in housing first-hand and expect the next 6 months to be dramatically better.

On a regional basis, gains in October’s Pending Home Sales Index varied as compared to September. The Midwest led the charge, and the West was the laggard.

  • Northeast Region: +19.6%
  • Midwest Region : +27.3%
  • South Region : +7.1%
  • West Region : -0.4%

Home buyers should take last month’s Pending Home Sales Index to heart. According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, so we can reasonably expect November’s and December’s existing homes sales data to be similarly strong.

In other words, the housing market is heating up and may have already shifting toward sellers. Changes like that lower buyer leverage, and increase the cost of homeownership. Coupled with rising mortgage rates, the shift is even more defined.

The best time to buy a home this year may have already passed. The next best time may be right now.

Talk to your clients if they’re planning to buy a home in 2011. It may be smart to move up the time frame.

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Home Price Index Rises 0.3% in March 2010

Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

hpi delta from peak 201003 Home Price Index Rises 0.3% in March 2010Home values rose in March, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s most recent Home Price Index. Values were reported higher by 0.3 percent, on average, from February.

We use the phrase “on average” because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets as well as citywide markets like Provo , too.

Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.

For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:

  • Values in the East South Central region rose 2.5%
  • Values in the Mountain states rose 1.1%
  • Values in the Middle Atlantic states fell 1.0%

Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today’s home buyers and sellers.

Real estate is a local phenomenon that can’t be summarized by state or region. What matters most to buyers and sellers is the economics of a neighborhood and that level of granularity can’t be served up by a national housing report like the Home Price Index.

The Home Price Index data is additionally unhelpful to buyers and sellers in that it reports on a 2-month delay.

In other words, Home Price Index is not even a fair reflection of today’s market — it highlights the real estate market as it existed 60 days ago.

So why is the Home Price Index even published? Because government, business and banks rely on the reports.  As a national indicator, the Home Price Index helps governments make policy, businesses make decisions, and banks make guidelines. This, in turn, trickles down to Main Street where it impacts every one of us — and eventually influences real estate.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.44 percent.

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Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In A Majority Of Cities Nationwide

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

case shiller delta 201001 Case Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In A Majority Of Cities Nationwide

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Wednesday. The report shows that, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, between December and January, home prices rose in more than half of the index’s tracked markets.

The strength of this month’s Case-Shiller report, however, should be put in context.

For one, the report is on a 2-month delay; it’s showing data from January, before the start of the Spring Buying Season and before the rush to beat the tax credit. Anecdotally, buyer interest has been strong since, leading to the types of multiple offer situations that drive home prices northward.

In other words, home values may be even higher than what’s reflected in the January Case-Shiller data above.

Furthermore, the Case-Shiller Index measures home values in just 20 cities nationwide and they’re not even the 20 biggest cities. Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose are specifically excluded from the report and each ranks among the country’s 10 most populous areas.

Despite its flaws, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains important. Much like the government’s Home Price Index, the private-sector report helps to finger broad housing trends and housing is still considered a keystone in the U.S. economic recovery.

Even if it’s two months slow.

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