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Archive for April, 2010

Where are Rates Going?

Thursday, April 22nd, 2010

Where are Rates Going4 300x220 Where are Rates Going?Isn’t that the million dollar question!  And experts are all over the place on this one, I’ve seen estimates ranging from 5.0% to 7.0% by the end of the year.  I think it’s safe to say rates WILL be higher, let’s just go with the assumption they’re at 6.00% on the 30 year fixed by year end.  So the question is, what does that do to your buying power?  Great question, I’m glad I asked it!

I’ve borrowed this little sliding interest rate chart here to show you exactly what happens to your buying power as rates increase.  I’ve highlighted what happens to ones buying power as interest rates slide from 5.00% (today) to 6.00% (at year end).  This chart shows the principle and interest payment for a $400k loan amount at 5.00% equals $2,148 per month, follow the slide and notice as rates go up to 6.00% your buying power decreases.  At 6.00% you would need to drop your loan amount to $360k in order to keep your payments at $2,158 per month.   Rate Chart2 300x187 Where are Rates Going?

So what’s the take away here guys?  Well besides the fact that low interest is good and high interest is bad (I’m the king of obvious I know), it tells us that for every one percent interest rates rise, our buying power decreases by 10%.  Does that make sense?  When rates increase from 5% to 6% you have to drop your loan amount from $400k to $360k ($40k or 10% of the purchase price) in order to keep payments in a similar range.

As a buyer that means, if property prices stay the same this year, you will actually be paying 10% more for your property because interest rates are rising.  Now if you are paying cash, you’re obviously not paying 10% more, but if you are financing your next home you are basically paying 10% more for that property due to the increased interest rate and borrowing costs.

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How Iceland’s Volcanoes Are Helping Mortgage Rates Fall

Wednesday, April 21st, 2010

volcano mortgage rates How Icelands Volcanoes Are Helping Mortgage Rates FallMortgage rates and home affordability have improved lately, thanks to an unlikely ally — Mother Nature.

In the 7 days since Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull erupted, ash clouds have grounded planes, disrupted businesses, and stranded exports in warehouses worldwide.

It’s a drag on commerce that’s spilled over onto Wall Street. As experts debate the potential for future seismic activity, traders are taking some of their investment risk off the table.

In trading circles, it’s called “safe haven buying”. When the market gets cloudy, investors often move their cash into relatively safe assets.  This includes government-backed securities — mortgage-bonds among them.

Demand for bonds rise, pushing up prices and driving down rates.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates touched a 3-week low earlier this week.

Volcanic eruptions and like natural disasters remind us: mortgage rates change for all sorts of reasons. Some we can predict, most we cannot. There’s literally thousands of influences on the U.S. mortgage market.

If you or your clients have been shopping for a home or floating a mortgage rate, luck’s been on your side. Mortgage rates have fallen post-Eyjafjallajökull. However, as ash clouds dissipate and business resumes worldwide, investors will regain their collective appetite for risk and safe haven buying will reach its natural end.

When that happens, mortgage rates will rise.

Therefore, use the seismic uncertainty to your advantage.  Consider locking your mortgage rate sooner rather than later — while rates are still low.

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Housing Starts Data Hints That Housing Will Expand Even After The Tax Credit Expires

Tuesday, April 20th, 2010

housing starts 201003 Housing Starts Data Hints That Housing Will Expand Even After The Tax Credit ExpiresAfter a strong March showing and a surprise upward-revision for February, Housing Starts are, once again, trending better.

It’s yet another signal that the housing market in Provo and nationwide is stabilized.

A Housing Start is a new home on which construction has started and, over the last 6 months, home builders are averaging one half-million starts per month.

This marks the highest 6-month average since 2008 and a reading one-fifth percent better from 12 months ago.  Revisions to prior data have all been higher, too.

Even more interesting, though, is that the number of newly-issued building permits is exploding. Permits were up more than 5 percent last month and have climbed back to the levels of late-2008.

Housing permits are an important data point in housing because permits are precursors to actual housing starts.  According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.

Therefore, because March’s housing permits increased, we should expect Housing Starts to continue to rise into the early months of summer.

This, too, reflects well on housing because the federal home buyer tax credit won’t be in existence this summer. The simple fact the homes are being built now shows that housing is likely to expand even after the tax credit expires.

Non-military members must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010 in order to claim up to $8,000 in federal tax credits.

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Better Together Part 1

Monday, April 19th, 2010

Coach Bill Hart discusses his observations as to how REALTORS and mortgage professionals must work better together in a contracting market.

“Better Together” from Building Champions on Vimeo.

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